Basic situation and trend of China's transportation infrastructure in the second half of 2012
According to statistics, in the first half of 2012, domestic fixed assets investment in transportation was 549.408 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than that in January-May. It can be seen from the data released from various places that most of the traffic solid investment in the first half of the year did not complete half of the annual plan, which means that the fixed assets investment in transportation will continue to increase in the second half of the year. In response to this, China Road Machinery Network recently visited a large number of large users of China Communications and China Railway Systems. Through their field research and analysis of relevant national policies, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the trend of China's transportation infrastructure in the second half of the year. And interpretation. We believe that these analysis and interpretation will have a clearer and clearer prediction of the market trend of China's construction machinery industry in the second half of the year.
Basic situation and trend of highway construction
Since March 2012, the State Council has discussed and approved the “12th Five-Year Comprehensive Transportation System Plan”. The plan clearly emphasizes the need to seriously promote the transportation infrastructure and promote the national highway network planning and rural road construction.
It is understood that since 2009, the completion of fixed assets investment in China's highway, waterway and transportation industries has continued to decline. In 2012, the planned investment for the whole year was 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.3% over 2011, and the growth rate has rebounded. However, due to the high debt ratio of local highways, the funding situation in the second half of the year is not optimistic. Although the relevant personages of the Ministry of Transport said that in order to alleviate the financial pressure on the expressway industry from the perspective of the central government, this year will further accelerate the progress of the allocation of budget funds. The approval speed of major construction projects in China has obviously accelerated, and some expressway networks, airports and rail transit projects After centralized approval, a number of key regional and key industry projects are gradually being introduced. In order to stimulate economic growth, various localities have adopted different construction modes according to their own economic conditions, such as the general contracting of design and construction in Inner Mongolia, the introduction of part of the capital method in Anhui, and the BT consortium of Hainan project, to further strengthen the operational means of short-term and fast-moving projects. The winning rate. As the speed of some major investment projects approved by the state is also accelerating, it is also a good news for the construction machinery industry.
In addition, with the adjustment of national policies, the transportation systems of various provinces and cities will follow the policy and make corresponding adjustments. For example, Jilin Province will have several large expressways to be built in the second half of the year; a series of Beijing-Shijiazhuang, Xingheng Hengshui, Zhangcheng Chengde, Xihuang, Xiqiao and Shijiazhuang South Rings in Hebei Province Large projects will be launched.
Basic situation and trend of railway construction
The State Council executive meeting held on May 23 stressed that it is necessary to conscientiously implement the general tone of the work of striving for stability and correct handling of the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations, and putting steady growth on more Important location. Subsequently, on the morning of July 9 and the morning of the 10th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council hosted two symposiums on economic situation to listen to the opinions and suggestions of experts and business leaders. And once again said: "The policy measures for steady growth include promoting consumption and export diversification, but the current important thing is to promote the reasonable growth of investment, especially in the fields of railway, municipal, energy, telecommunications, health, education and so on. Confidence."
According to statistics, from January to May 2012, China's railway infrastructure investment totaled 105.48 billion yuan, completing 25.98% of the initial plan of 406 billion yuan. We think this is normal. In addition to the special situation in 2011, the monthly investment in railway infrastructure has decreased month by month. The proportion of the actual investment in railway infrastructure in the total construction of the railway construction in the years from January to May of 2007-2010 is the proportion of total infrastructure investment in the year. : 25.94%, 16.89%, 24.83% and 24.71%, so the infrastructure investment in January-May 2012 is within the normal range. Even if the railway infrastructure investment in 2012 does not exceed the plan at the beginning of the year, it will invest 30.52 billion yuan in the next 7 months. Compared with the actual infrastructure investment of 262.493 billion yuan in the 7 months after 2011, it increased by 14.49%. From the perspective of the production and sales of the main products of construction machinery in July, the decline has further narrowed. Therefore, we expect the sales of the entire construction machinery industry to stabilize in the second half of the year.
In addition, the Ministry of Railways recently issued the “Implementation Opinions on Encouraging and Guiding Private Capital to Invest in Railways”, which will encourage and guide private capital to enter the railway field in compliance with laws and regulations. It is also clear that all railway projects will be included in local bidding and won more than 2 trillion bank credits, which will undoubtedly increase the start of construction. After the July 23 meeting, news of the resumption of work on some railway projects came out. It is expected that the third and fourth quarters will be the peak period of railway construction in 2012. The re-raising of the steady growth policy will have a driving effect on railway equipment and construction machinery.
Analysis of the Impact of Traffic Construction Trends on Construction Enterprises
Due to the continuous influence of the national macro policy, the current construction market is extremely shrinking, and the market competition is unprecedentedly motivated, and construction companies are facing tremendous pressure to survive. However, there are also some opportunities, such as the rapid development of cities in various regions and counties, the promotion of urban rail transit, the vigorous launch of BT projects, the timely adjustment of development strategies, the rational distribution of markets, the timely adjustment of product institutions, and the occupation of a place in the market. To ensure the sustainable development of the company.
(1) Conventional transportation infrastructure projects are highly competitive in bidding, and low-cost competition and large-value low-price guarantees flood the entire market. Enterprises should invest in reasonable and low prices according to their own market competitiveness, and do not blindly enter.
(2) The scale of investment of the Group has increased year by year, and the types of investment involved are becoming more and more abundant. It is necessary to keep up with the Group's internal investment projects and take the investment business together to build a long industrial chain.
(3) Local governments have introduced many investment projects to the market due to limited financing platforms. Enterprises can find suitable investment opportunities in the market and adopt different investment cooperation modes (BT, BOT) through preferential conditions provided by the owners. , PPP, etc., and strive to have high return on investment and low risk.
(4) With the construction needs of urban rail transit, actively track the subway projects in Xiamen and Fuzhou and the intercity rail transit projects in the Pearl River Delta. Available when the local government financing platform is limited, and entering the urban rail transit project through investment, etc., it can bypass the threshold of qualification and performance and achieve a breakthrough in urban rail business.
(5) It can be entered through investment projects or in the form of joint ventures with qualified enterprises, or through relatively close projects such as earthwork and dam roads. You can find breakthroughs in water conservancy, mines, airports, and ports to achieve product structure adjustment.
National policy is stable and conducive to the construction machinery industry
With the adjustment of the national macroeconomic policies, especially the recent two central bank interest rate cuts, the financing difficulties of local financing platforms will be improved to some extent, and urbanization construction will continue to accelerate, due to “stable growth and stability”. Political and economic needs, it is expected that more construction projects such as roads, municipalities, and water conservancy projects will start in the second half of the year, and the construction market prospects tend to be good. However, at the same time, after the loosening of the national monetary policy in the second half of the year, the local financing situation was improved, the preferential conditions of the local government for investment projects were greatly reduced, and the conditions given were relatively harsh. In the past year, there were almost no new projects in the railway construction market. This has led to a huge railway construction team crowding into the roads, municipalities, water conservancy and other fields.
In addition, the positive effect of the central bank's interest rate cut on construction machinery is obvious. While reducing the financial expenses of listed companies in the construction machinery industry, it is beneficial for users to save their purchase costs when purchasing through financial leasing, mortgage, etc., thus driving the demand side. Release, reduce corporate financial pressure. In addition, the market brought by the interest rate cuts to the infrastructure industry, water conservancy, real estate and other downstream industries to warm up expectations, indirectly stimulate the recovery of construction machinery and other midstream industries. Combined with the annual performance of the construction machinery market in 2011 and related data analysis, it is expected that the decline in production and sales of construction machinery's main products in the second half of 2012 will be reduced, at least the data can be "good-looking".
In summary, the favorable measures of the central bank's two interest rate cuts are likely to stimulate the short-term strength of the construction machinery sector, but the sustainability is poor. In the long run, the construction machinery industry wants to get out of the brilliant rising curve in the second half of the year, but also depends on whether the downstream demand side can pick up. In the first half of 2012, it has quietly passed away. Apart from a bleak market in the construction machinery industry, it is one after another: thinking about product quality, thinking about over-marketing, thinking about overdue payment, about funds Chain tension thinking... Looking at the current market situation, China's construction machinery enterprises have reached a period of slowdown in development growth. While waiting for the infrastructure to return to growth, enterprises can calm down and plan the overall development and improve internal management and R&D. To meet the industry's recovery.